Accounting for Threshold Non-Monetary Events in Hybrid Inflation Models
Accounting for Threshold Non-Monetary Events in Hybrid Inflation Models
Evgeny V. Balatsky
Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (4, 4th Veshnyakovsky Lane, office 319, Moscow, 109456, Russian Federation), Chief Researcher, RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (47, Nakhimovsky Avenue, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (4, 4th Veshnyakovsky Lane, office 319, Moscow, 109456, Russian Federation), Chief Researcher, RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (47, Nakhimovsky Avenue, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Natalia A. Ekimova
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Leading Researcher, Center for Macroeconomic Research at the Department of Economic Theory, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (4, 4th Veshnyakovsky Lane, office 319, Moscow, 109456, Russian Federation, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Leading Researcher, Center for Macroeconomic Research at the Department of Economic Theory, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (4, 4th Veshnyakovsky Lane, office 319, Moscow, 109456, Russian Federation, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Journal of Economic Regulation,
2019, Vol.
10
(no. 1),
The article shows that in recent decades the phenomenon of inflation has turned mainly from monetary phenomenon mainly into non-monetary. Applied calculations fully confirm this conclusion in relation to Russia. The dependence of inflation on non-monetary factors requires the development of new approaches to its modeling and forecasting. The calculations and analysis have shown the emerging transition from mono-instrumental model complexes to poly-instrumental analytical systems and the shift in potential inflation volatility into the area of short-term fluctuations. Thus, the focus in inflation modeling is shifting towards short-term forecasts. This is an independent instrumental problem. The authors propose a specialized system of inflation forecasting, which includes a decision-maker, an analytical core (a conjugate econometric model and a neural network) and an analytical interface (a system of accounting for threshold non-monetary events and a system of accounting for the volatility of inflation factors). A list of threshold events and a decision-making algorithm to adjust the model based on it with the help of the introduced indices of importance of events estimated the basis of an expert survey and the index of the inflationary potential of the environment are proposed in this article.
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