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Inflationary handicap of the monetary transmission mechanism: evidence from Russia

Inflationary handicap of the monetary transmission mechanism: evidence from Russia

Вопросы регулирования экономики, , Том 3 (номер 4),
с. 109-124

В статье анализируются импульсы, возникающие в результате изменения денежного предложения в России и передающиеся основным элементам, составляющим валовой внутренний продукт: потребительским расходам, инвестициям в основной капитал, государственным расходам и чистому экспорту. Используемая модель исправления ошибок (VECM) позволяет раскрыть кратко- и долгосрочные взаимосвязи между денежным предложением и названными элементами ВВП, показывая, что краткосрочное поведение полученных взаимозависимостей противоречит теоретической логике трансмиссионного механизма. Монетарное расширение создает критически высокий уровень инфляционных ожиданий, который через эффект Хикса-Слуцкого тормозит рост основных макроэкономических агрегатов и препятствует развитию сырьевых экономик. Долгосрочные отношения согласуются с теорией монетаризма, вынуждая монетарные власти воздержаться от излишних регуляторных действий.


Ключевые слова: предложение денег; трансмиссионный механизм; денежнокредитная политика

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Издатель: ООО "Гуманитарные Перспективы"
Учредитель: ООО "Гуманитарные Перспективы"
ISSN: 2078-5429